Real‐Time Estimations

Model overview

The Real-Time estimation model is a hierarchal estimation model that first tries to use external forecasts to estimate the production, if this fails it then tries to use our own internal forecasts to calculate the production values. If both of these fails it falls back to using the Time Slicer Average estimation model.

Note

This is currently limited to solar and wind forecasts, other modes are using Time Slicer Average only used for a select few zones for the moment.

Examples

Example 1:

We have forecasts from ENTSO-E for 1 day ahead, internal forecasts for 2 days ahead. The estimation model will then use the ENTSO-E values for day 1, internal forecasts for day 2 and Time Slicer Average for day 3(+) if needed.

Example 2:

We are missing external forecasts but have internal forecasts for 2 days ahead. The estimation model will then use the internal forecasts for day 1 and day 2 and then fall back to Time Slicer Average for day 3(+) if needed.

Related external documentation:

• ENTSO-E Transparency Platform - Generation forecasts for Solar and Wind